Forecasting

Aedes mosquitoes are responsible for transmitting arboviruses such as chikungunya, dengue, and Zika. The geographic distribution of these viruses has dramatically expanded in the last few decades and Colombia is one of the countries in the Americas most affected by these arboviral epidemics.

The overall aim of this study is to use a multi-disease perspective to identify disease patterns, drivers, and accurate disease forecasting methods that allow clinical and public health services to proactively plan and implement control and prevention measures.

Various statistical methods are used such as Poisson-lognormal mixture models, Bayesian multivariate models, semi-mechanistic dynamic models and machine learning algorithms.